The European Central Bank, at its monthly policy meeting Wednesday, will hold fire on interest rates but will keep a close eye on liquidity conditions in the eurozone, analysts said.
The ECB's governing council is convening in Paris rather than its usual venue of the bank's Frankfurt headquarters. And the meeting has been brought forward to Wednesday as a result of the national public holiday in Germany on Thursday.
ECB watchers are confident that central bank chief Mario Draghi will not announce any moves in interest rates or other policy measures, even if markets may be worried about future liquidity provisioning.
There is "no need for the ECB to change its tune," said Berenberg Bank economist Christian Schulz.
"The eurozone recovery is picking up a bit more pace. Economic sentiment indicators have risen further."
However, inflation has fallen further and "substantial downside risks remain," Schulz cautioned.
Draghi and other policymakers "have emphasised that the eurozone is at a very early stage of recovery. The ECB will make sure not to tighten policy prematurely," he said.
Money market rates have risen recently amid concern about liquidity while economic recovery still remains fragile.
At the bank's last meeting, Draghi said the ECB was "particularly attentive" to such developments.
New ECB data last week showed that lending to businesses in the debt-mired eurozone is continuing to contract sharply.
The ECB already flooded eurozone banks with more than 1.0 trillion euros ($1.35 trillion) in cash via two long-term refinancing operations (LTROs) at the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 in a bid to avert a potentially disastrous credit crunch.
And Draghi told a hearing at the European Parliament in Brussels last week that another LTRO could be on the cards.
But ECB watchers believe any fresh liquidity measures will not come just yet.
"For the time being, there is no immediate need for action," said Schulz at Berenberg Bank.
Newedge Strategy analyst Annalisa Piazza agreed.
"No changes in the current ECB policy mix are expected this week," she said.
"Looking at recent data, it looks like a gradual recovery is confirmed in the third quarter and there is no need for further accommodation in ECB policy in the near term. That said, Draghi and other ECB members have often pointed out that the governing council is keeping a close eye on liquidity conditions. And further emphasis on this subject will be put at the meeting," Piazza said.
"We expect Draghi to confirm that the ECB is ready to act on the liquidity front should money market rates spike higher," she concluded.
Marie Diron at EY Eurozone Forecast pointed out that eurozone banks are continuing to repay their previous ECB loans.
"This implies that the eurozone as a whole does not need more liquidity. But there are probably still some pockets of liquidity squeeze which a new LTRO would help ease."
Money market rates in Europe have been rising recently amid talk about a so-called "tapering" or winding down of anti-crisis measures by the US Federal Reserve on the other side of the Atlantic, Schubert believed.
But the US Fed recently sought to counter such speculation by insisting it will keep its foot on the monetary stimulus pedal.
Furthermore, recent economic data for the single currency area had surprised to the upside, also adding to expectations of a possible end to expansive monetary policy.
But Commerzbank economist Michael Schubert believed "the phase of positive data surprises of the eurozone is over."
Speculation of rising rates in Europe was therefore likely to diminish and without those, "there will probably be no new LTRO," he concluded.
วันอังคารที่ 1 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2556
Suburban detention for former Pakistan strongman
At the end of a quiet lane snaking through the well-heeled Islamabad suburb of Chak Shahzad, a terracotta-coloured house modelled on a Moroccan courtyard home stands amid spreading orchards and wheatfields.
It would be a restful, bucolic scene, were it not for the army of 300 policemen, paramilitaries, soldiers, snipers and anti-terrorist officers on hand to guard the owner -- the former leader of the world's only Islamic nuclear power, Pervez Musharraf.
Pakistan's one-time military strongman is under house arrest, but enjoying detention de luxe: writing his memoirs, working out each day and eating meals cooked by his personal chef.
The former general, who ruled from 1999-2008 after deposing an elected government in a bloodless coup, returned to Pakistan after years of self-imposed exile in March.
He came vowing to stand in the general election and "save" Pakistan, but his arrival restarted a barrage of legal cases relating to his time in power, including murder charges over the death of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007.
The Chak Shahzad house was declared a "sub-jail" by a court in April, and he has lived there in detention since, as the cases against him grind through Pakistan's sclerotic judicial system.
As the man who allied his country with Washington in its "war on terror" after the 9/11 attacks, Musharraf is in danger from Islamist militants who have vowed to kill him.
So his prison and refuge is the house he commissioned back in 2006, at the height of his power, which was still under construction when he was forced from power and into exile.
"The house was 95 percent finished before he left, but the first time he spent a night in the house was after he came back this year," said Hammad Husain, the architect.
Memoirs of citizen Musharraf
Inside the villa, the walls tell the story of Musharraf's career -- photos that form a Who's Who of world leaders, the swords and guns one might expect of a military man, and a piece of fabric from the cloth of the Kaaba in Mecca, a holy relic given by the Saudi king.
Aides say Musharraf, 70, is keeping his body in shape with 75-minute workouts every morning and his mind sharp with reading and writing.
"He is writing a second book. I have seen the text. He has written substantially but there is still work to be done," his official spokesman Raza Bokhari said.
The new volume will follow on from his first book of memoirs published in 2006, "In the Line of Fire".
"It is picking up from 2007 onwards, from the peak of his popularity to his downfall, to life in self-imposed exile and then formation of a political party and return to Pakistan," Bokhari said.
The former president lives with his bodyguards, assistants and personal cook in part of the 1,100 square metre (12,000 square foot) house, run under the auspices of the tough Adyala prison in Rawalpindi.
Despite the rigorous security, he still fears his enemies will try to get to him.
"His food is not prepared in prison, but on the premises, by his cook, for security reasons. He is afraid of being poisoned," a prison source said.
To see him, his family and friends must get permission from the authorities, which can take up to a week.
His close family have visited him since his house arrest began, but they spend most of their time abroad. His wife Sehba lives in a luxury apartment in Dubai, his son Bilal is based in the US and his daughter Ayla had to leave Karachi this summer because of threats against her.
He keeps a close eye on his legal tussles, accusations his entourage dismiss as politically motivated, "false, fabricated and fictitious".
In Pakistan, court cases can drag on for years, but charges can also be dropped overnight where an agreement emerges to let the accused leave the country.
There have been rumours for months of a possible deal to let Musharraf go back into exile, to avoid a clash between the government and the all-powerful army, which is keen to avoid seeing one of its own tried by civilians.
"He is in very good spirits, he's a strong person. Though he is a little disappointed in the judicial system in Pakistan," said an aide.
It would be a restful, bucolic scene, were it not for the army of 300 policemen, paramilitaries, soldiers, snipers and anti-terrorist officers on hand to guard the owner -- the former leader of the world's only Islamic nuclear power, Pervez Musharraf.
Pakistan's one-time military strongman is under house arrest, but enjoying detention de luxe: writing his memoirs, working out each day and eating meals cooked by his personal chef.
The former general, who ruled from 1999-2008 after deposing an elected government in a bloodless coup, returned to Pakistan after years of self-imposed exile in March.
He came vowing to stand in the general election and "save" Pakistan, but his arrival restarted a barrage of legal cases relating to his time in power, including murder charges over the death of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007.
The Chak Shahzad house was declared a "sub-jail" by a court in April, and he has lived there in detention since, as the cases against him grind through Pakistan's sclerotic judicial system.
As the man who allied his country with Washington in its "war on terror" after the 9/11 attacks, Musharraf is in danger from Islamist militants who have vowed to kill him.
So his prison and refuge is the house he commissioned back in 2006, at the height of his power, which was still under construction when he was forced from power and into exile.
"The house was 95 percent finished before he left, but the first time he spent a night in the house was after he came back this year," said Hammad Husain, the architect.
Memoirs of citizen Musharraf
Inside the villa, the walls tell the story of Musharraf's career -- photos that form a Who's Who of world leaders, the swords and guns one might expect of a military man, and a piece of fabric from the cloth of the Kaaba in Mecca, a holy relic given by the Saudi king.
Aides say Musharraf, 70, is keeping his body in shape with 75-minute workouts every morning and his mind sharp with reading and writing.
"He is writing a second book. I have seen the text. He has written substantially but there is still work to be done," his official spokesman Raza Bokhari said.
The new volume will follow on from his first book of memoirs published in 2006, "In the Line of Fire".
"It is picking up from 2007 onwards, from the peak of his popularity to his downfall, to life in self-imposed exile and then formation of a political party and return to Pakistan," Bokhari said.
The former president lives with his bodyguards, assistants and personal cook in part of the 1,100 square metre (12,000 square foot) house, run under the auspices of the tough Adyala prison in Rawalpindi.
Despite the rigorous security, he still fears his enemies will try to get to him.
"His food is not prepared in prison, but on the premises, by his cook, for security reasons. He is afraid of being poisoned," a prison source said.
To see him, his family and friends must get permission from the authorities, which can take up to a week.
His close family have visited him since his house arrest began, but they spend most of their time abroad. His wife Sehba lives in a luxury apartment in Dubai, his son Bilal is based in the US and his daughter Ayla had to leave Karachi this summer because of threats against her.
He keeps a close eye on his legal tussles, accusations his entourage dismiss as politically motivated, "false, fabricated and fictitious".
In Pakistan, court cases can drag on for years, but charges can also be dropped overnight where an agreement emerges to let the accused leave the country.
There have been rumours for months of a possible deal to let Musharraf go back into exile, to avoid a clash between the government and the all-powerful army, which is keen to avoid seeing one of its own tried by civilians.
"He is in very good spirits, he's a strong person. Though he is a little disappointed in the judicial system in Pakistan," said an aide.
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